Explaining Bureaucratic Optimism: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Executive Agency Macroeconomic Forecasts

ANALYTICAL FOUNDATIONS OF FORECAST HORIZON PROPOSITION & STATIC AND DYNAMIC ORGANIZATIONAL STABILITY COROLLARIES Explaining Bureaucratic Optimism: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Executive Agency Macroeconomic Forecasts

Political Appointments, Civil Service Systems, and Bureaucratic Competence: Organizational Balancing and Executive Branch Revenue Forecasts in the American States

Scholarship on executive politics provides conflicting views about whether staffing administrative agencies through politicized or (politically) autonomous means is the best method for maximizing bureaucratic competence. We offer a theoretical account which maintains that obtaining a proper balance between both types of personnel systems across the supervisory and subordinate levels of an organ...

The Impact of the Cadbury Committee Recommendations on Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: UK Evidence

This paper examines the relationship between the board structure of UK firms and the accuracy of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts with respect to information asymmetry and agency theory. We hypothesize that managers of firms complying with the recommendations of The Code of Best Practice may have “less to hide” and, subsequently, provide more information to outsiders (including analysts)...

Control Theory and Economic Policy Optimization: The Origin, Achievements and the Fading Optimism from a Historical Standpoint

Economists were interested in economic stabilization policies as early as the 1930’s but the formal applications of stability theory from the classical control theory to economic analysis appeared in the early 1950’s when a number of control engineers actively collaborated with economists on economic stability and feedback mechanisms. The theory of optimal control resulting from the contributio...

Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Shocks on International Commodity Prices: Emphasis on Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effects

Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block ...